Consider the past decprisancies between rumors and outcomes:From 2007 Pollbludger:At the start of the third week of the campaign, the Daily Telegraph ran a combined poll from the electorates of Robertson, Dobell, Lindsay and Paterson which pointed to an 8 per cent swing to Labor, easily enough to win them all four. The following week, Dennis Shanahan of The Australian related suggestions from state front-bencher John Aquilina that party polling in NSW marginals was ?not as strong as published polling?, and that talk about Robertson in particular was ?a lot of hype?.Later in the week, Newspoll published a marginal seats poll showing a collective 9.6 per cent swing to Labor in Herbert, Moreton, Bonner and Blair. The swing was at 8.6 per cent when the exercise was replicated in the final fortnight of the campaign. Labor strategists quoted by Dennis Atkins of the Courier-Mail in early October suggested the latter was nearer the mark, with regional Queensland polling pointing to ?two party preferred votes north of 55 per cent?. Presumably this referred to the target marginals of Herbert, Flynn and Hinkler. Madonna King also wrote in the Courier-Mail at this time that Liberal insiders were struggling to dispute Labor talk that Herbert and five other Queensland seats were ?in the bag?.

by Rodina 10:20:12 PM 2012.02.26