I definitely come down on the side of saiyng that nothing has been fixed. Most of the toxic assets are still on the books, and things are only getting worse (just look at the CRE time-bomb, as the reserve cushions are eaten away). We are following an almost identical trajectory to what happened in Japan after 1989. Japan saw some recoveries which would last for a year or two, only to fall to new lows, in a cycle which has lasted for 20 years.Just like the US, Japan refused to deal with it's problems, and delayed the purging of mal-investments, but this only led to dragging out their depression by decades.Also, keep in mind that this economic trauma is NOT a US only phenomena. Watch what is happening in Europe and China. European nations are in a world of hurt, and the future of the Euro is even in question, as we see strains increase between nations (e.g. Greece being unable to meet it's financial obligations and other Euro nations unwilling to bail it out). There are a lot more Dubai World's out there, on the brink of insolvency, which will be pushed over the edge in 2010.2009 has been the equivalent of 1930, when the Dow recovered most of the 1929 losses and the business press was giddy with optimism for having missed the bullet.The next show in our latter-day depression is about to drop in 2010. Rate this comment: 0 0
by Neverson 04:30:35 AM 2013.01.27 |